The total market analysis of Quantum Data Analytics!
Our comprehensive analysis on the overall market promotes an in-depth look at the digital asset markets. This is accompanied by several sections. First is an overview, of market and technical factors. This is followed by chart analysis. With the help of statistics and regression analysis, the trends, important zones and the state of the market are examined in detail. Seasonality and possible price developments supported by artificial intelligence are also considered.
Update from Thursday, 09/15/2022!
Next update on 05/03/2023!
The market overview!
The market overview!
Once again, I would like to start with some good news. Ethereum has now completed its long-awaited hardfork and the consensus was successfully switched from POW to POS. And the price did exactly what we have already described in the last analysis, and that is nothing. In the meantime, it is falling. This is exactly what was to be expected. Even though the joy is huge and was probably the most significant event of the year, which really did the whole market good, the bear market rally is over for now. We are in the midst of a strong bear market and it is not going to end anytime soon. This is due to the disastrous macroeconomic factors that even such an important hardfork as Ethereum cannot change. Inflation is still too high and slowly eating through all sectors. In Europe, it’s even worse than in the US. Central banks are forced to counter it and they are doing so. We will always see smaller rallies but, as it currently looks, the possibilities of a new all-time high have been postponed well into 2023.
From an economic point of view, the entire digital asset market is a continuous disaster, but it is slowly but surely coming to an end. The reason for this is the technological developments and the global accumulation of digital assets. They are not in retreat as we saw in the 2018 crash and that is the good news in it. Digital assets are increasingly becoming alternative and interesting financial instruments. CME Group has opened futures trading in Ethereum as of today. And China is also coming back to the market, albeit indirectly, repeating the game of reliable confusion. While digital assets are banned in China, a Shanghai court made a landmark ruling a few months ago that digital assets are definitely part of private property. Since then, people have been looking for ways to invest in digital assets. New loopholes are opening up, so to speak, which could well provide bullish signals for the market.
Individual assets could well see decent breakouts to the upside despite a fierce bear market. Cardano is entering the home stretch for the Vasil hardfork, which has already been postponed several times. Even though critics still complain about the broken testnets, Cardano is known for its extremely reliable technology. No half measures are taken and testnets are developed to put them through their paces. And if one breaks, that’s a good thing!
XRP from Ripple is still engaged in a fierce mudslinging battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which is currently clearly led by Ripple. Ripple-Labs has been able to score significant victories against the SEC in recent weeks. There is good reason to believe that the lawsuit will be off the table by the end of the year, and the signs are good. Therefore, it would not be unwise to have a few XRP’s in the portfolio for the current occasion. Many market participants assume a 300% rally at the end of the lawsuit, which is also quite realistic. If the lawsuit is off the table, XRP will be listed again on all reputable platforms in the US. In addition, the IPO of Ripple Labs can be accelerated. There the condition of the market seems then to be completely indifferent. When the news comes that the lawsuit is over, regardless of its outcome, a great many market participants want to profit from it. If Ripple wins the lawsuit, everything remains the same, but if XRP is classified as a security, that is also very bullish. This would make XRP the first digital security, which institutional investors can put neatly into their portfolios.
But what’s next for the market? Undoubtedly, the next few weeks still very turbulent. According to experience, the second half of September, with midterm elections in the U.S., prices are expected to fall. This could change slightly in early October, as we see a technical short-term recovery phase. After that, it could go downhill again until mid-October. If a bottom has then been found by the end of October, the chances for longer-term rising prices are very good. However, this logic only works if there is no extremely negative news. The regulatory efforts in the USA are currently not aimed at putting a leash on the market, but much more at supporting technological development. They are trying to strike a balance between investor protection and market growth. And from the looks of it, this could also work. Overall, the market still looks very bearish, but the first bullish signals in the medium-term time frame are already faintly visible.
Market analysis!
The chart development of total market cap!
Now it gets really exciting on the weekly chart! After the current sell-off, the digital asset market has returned to its strong support. For weeks, the market kept getting the support it needed for bear market rallies at the key MA 200 moving average. Even though we kept falling below this important level on the weekly chart in the short term, it was always able to close above it in the end. That in itself is a really good and strong sign. The question now is, can it also work this time and do the bulls have the strength to do so? We will soon see if we lose even the last support. If this is the case, a setback to 691,-BUSDT is very likely. Here we find the mark of the last all-time high of 2018. And the market tends basically in a bear market to get the last all-time high, as support.
On the daily chart, it currently looks anything but super. The market has fallen from the important support zone and is thus also below the important upward support line. In addition, the market now has the important moving average MA 100 as a strong resistance, which was previously still partly support. It would have been important for the market to at least stay in Zone 1 of the price cluster and work off the uptrend support line. If we continue to set back, the next few days also comes a bearish crossover of the moving averages MA 50 and MA 100. This could provide additional selling pressure. The market finds the next support at 852,-BUSDT and then we would be back to the June low. Maybe we will be lucky and it will hold here as it gets the support of the seasonality of the market. Maybe it comes also quite differently, but that is rather wishful thinking.
On the h4 chart, it does not look much better. Here, the moving average MA 100 has now established itself as a solid resistance and it finds no way through. That it closed below zone 1 of the price cluster does not improve the situation. A free fall to the support at 852,-BUSDT would be possible. Here, we could then start a small recovery, which could lead to 908,-BUSDT. After that, it becomes exciting. If it can hold at this level, a further technical recovery would only be logical. However, if it bounces off this slight resistance, it will go to the next further lows, ultimately to the 2018 TOP. According to our data, a pullback to the 2018 TOP is more likely. Volumes are thin, large investors are holding back and it is getting too hot for small investors as well.
However, the good thing is that investors are not fundamentally leaving the market, but are making themselves comfortable on the sidelines. The market capitalization of the largest Stabelcoins is still unbroken. Which means investors want to get back into the market but they want to wait out the general uncertainty first. Moreover, we have not yet seen the final capitulation, which is common for the market in a bear market per se. If this capitulation comes, the market only repeats its known patterns!
Description chart technique!
Resistors
The resistances to the upside are marked in red on the chart.
- 949,610 BUSDT
- 1.035,12 BUSDT
- 1.206, 75 BUSDT
- 1.242,- BUSDT
- 1.310,- BUSDT
- 1.494,- BUSDT
- 1.561,- BUSDT
Supports
The supports towards the bottom are marked in green.
- 691,656 BUSDT
- 568,717 BUSDT
- 448,760 BUSDT
Price clusters
Price zones are very strong supports and resistances that combine to form a box. We determine these from the daily closing prices, which are combined into zones.
ZONE1:
949,61 BUSDT – 1.035 BUSDT
ZONE2:
1.207 BUSDT – 1.242 BUSDT
ZONE3:
1.494 BUSDT – 1.561 BUSDT
ZONE4:
1.796 BUSDT – 1.909 BUSDT
Open images for improved display!
Four hours chart
Daily chart
Weekly chart
Depth analyses!
Point chart
Indicators
Colors
Overview of the market depth!
Fear & Greed Index! You can see well the individual phases of the respective cycle. The first phase is always extreme, the second phase normal and the third phase cools down and indicates a trend reversal. The Fear & Greed Index is now in the cooling pattern of the fear of the bear market. We have reached the first phase and Greed is falling into the mid-range. In the bear market, this indicates that the rally is over and fear will resume. Experience shows that the second phase is not as strong as the first.
The volume price trend in the relative strength index has received the first yellow dot, which could indicate a trend reversal. Thus, the market signals the eventual end of the bear market rally and the dots go back to the reddish.
The volume is consistent at a thin level.
The money flow shows that large investors are currently very cautious. The market is dominated by small investors. According to the ON-Chain data, institutional investors are currently on the sidelines.
The dots are approaching the AI trend and testing it as a support. In this situation, it would now be important for the market to stop closing below the AI trend. This is expected to flatten the curve, indicating the confirmation of a bottom. Meanwhile, the AI Trend is turning slightly upwards again, which could be a bullish signal!
The Google Trend for Crypto is slightly increasing again. This is indicated by the black dashed line in the chart. The current value is 27 points. Google Trend
Description regression technique!
Points
The points correspond to the respective daily closing price on the price scale. If they change their size, they depend on the projected volume. The larger they become, the stronger the volume. The color can also vary.
Colors
The colors each correspond to the value indicated in the right color scale. The stronger the color becomes, the more it adds weight to the value. If the colors become lighter or weaker, this usually indicates a trend reversal.
Lines
The two different colored lines correspond to the moving averages. The 200 MA shows the average of the last 200 days. The AI trend line is based on the predictive value of the moving averages using artificial intelligence. If one line breaks the other in a period of more than 30 days, this may indicate a trend reversal. If the AI trend line is above the 200 MA, we are in an uptrend.
Open image for improved display!
Volume price trend in the relative strength index.
Volume
Money flow
Greed and fear index.
Erik Wimmer
Programmer, market analyst, on-chain analyst and quant strategies.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Quantum Data Analytics GmbH. Every investment and trading move involves risk and advise you to seek other opinions as well. We do not recommend buying or selling decisions! You trade at your own risk!
