The Bitcoin analysis by Quantum Data Analytics!

Our comprehensive analysis on Bitcoin promotes an in-depth look at the market, accompanied by several sections. First, there is an overview, of market and technical factors, accompanied with chart analysis. With the help of statistics and regression analysis, the trends, important zones and the state of the market are analyzed in their depths. Seasonality and possible price developments supported by artificial intelligence are considered.

Update from Friday, 09/23/2022!
Next update on 10/07/2022!


Technical analysis

Technical analysis of the bitcoin network!

On the technical picture, we see a divided camp. In the red area are currently the active and the new addresses, which is clearly bearish in the current segment. Compared to the same period last year, active addresses are down 4% and new addresses are down -5%. The hashrate, on the other hand, increased. Compared to last year, the hashrate increased by 53%. Network activity also increased by 21% compared to last year, which is a clear bullish signal. In terms of the overall situation, the bears have the advantage. Overall, however, the network is very stable and safe.


Chart analysis

The chart technical development of Bitcoin!

If it goes after the words of Jerome Powell in the last FED meeting of 21.09.2022 the markets must fall. In summary, the situation is like this: the markets must go down and if it comes to capitulations in the markets, the FED will not save the markets. You can’t deliver more power to the bears. The FED wants to get inflation under control, no matter what the cost. Meanwhile, several major banks have already reacted to this and stopped loans for the purchase of digital assets in the meantime. Bitcoin and other digital assets will soon feel the effects of this measure. Nevertheless, the situation is not all that bad. Regulatory efforts in the U.S. are moving forward and are sympathetic to digital assets. Currently, the discussion is whether to classify digital assets as commodities, which can be overwhelmingly positive for Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin’s accumulation is still unbroken is very positive in itself, but we must not be fooled by the fact that we are still in a tangible bear market and it is far from over. In our overall market analysis(09/15/2022) we have already outlined the current downtrend. Despite the bear market, bull market rallies can occur for individual assets, where the prediction has already come to pass for XRP. A bull market rally is currently not in sight for Bitcoin.

The weekly chart gives some hope, even if this hope is rather purposeful optimism. Bitcoin has been near zone 1 of the price cluster since around mid-June. Whether this is a firm support or can already be declared as a firm bottom is not yet clear. The decision, however, is approaching. As we have already reported in detail in our last analysis, Bitcoin simply does not make it above the most important resistances. One of these important resistances is the sloping dashed support line of its actual downtrend channel, which should actually provide support on the downside. However, it is now acting as a strong resistance. In the same vicinity is the MA 10 moving average, which has already been acting as resistance for two weeks and is not letting Bitcoin cross over. This is shortly followed by resistance at 22,489,-USDT and the most important moving average MA 200. All three resistances are so strong in total that it significantly increases the probability that we will see more falling prices soon. If it comes to a sell-off, the strong support at 18,509.- may still offer support. The next support we find only again at 15,644, – which is not particularly strong, however. After that, it continues to zone 0 of the price cluster, from where the last bull cycle began.

Description chart technique!

The daily chart shows a clear sideways movement in zone 1 of the price cluster. Here, too, the MA 10 moving average serves as strong resistance. The MA 10 gets support from the resistance at 19,428.-USDT, which is also the upper side of zone 1. What is a bit positive is that the distance between the MA 100 and MA 200 moving averages is still very large. This could be reason for the bulls to join forces and push Bitcoin higher. But based on macroeconomic factors, it is likely that the bulls will still hold back. If inflation figures fall in October, a bull market rally would be quite conceivable. But until then, we have to hope that the strong support at 18,509 holds. Overall, the daily chart does not really show a bullish outlook, but rather the potential for further sell-offs.

On the h4 chart, the valley of tears is widening. The only support Bitcoin receives is the MA 10 moving average. Opposite it, the MA 50 holds the position as a strong resistance, which already comes to the zone 1 of the price cluster. As before, we have seen lower lows and lower highs. Not necessarily the best conditions for the bulls, who still have to be patient. The bears have a firm grip on Bitcoin. A possible bullish crossover of the moving averages is not in sight. Therefore, the signs are also on sell on the h4 chart. Yes, Bitcoin has not had it easy lately. Not only because of the disastrous situation on the markets. Bitcoin keeps coming under pressure in the political discussion regarding its energy-intensive mining. Currently, other digital assets have the better cards in their hands. But we don’t want to give up hope for this year quite yet. Bitcoin is approaching a possible breakout channel to the upside. In the U.S., the elections are going into the finals, which can basically provide a boost. This also coincides very well with our overall market analysis, where a new uptrend could take place in mid to late October. The only question is from where the uptrend starts. We actually have a capitulation ahead of us in the current cycles for Bitcoin to end its bear market cycle. I see a possible bottom between 12,000.00USDT and 14,000.00USDT.

Resistances

The resistances to the upside are marked in red on the chart.

  • 23.524,- USDT
  • 26.280,- USDT
  • 28.632,- USDT
Supports

The supports towards the bottom are marked in green.

  • 22.489,- USDT
  • 19.428,- USDT
  • 18.509,- USDT
  • 15.644,- USDT
Price clusters

Price zones are very strong supports and resistances that combine to form a box. We determine these from the daily closing prices, which are combined into zones.

ZONE1:
18.509,- USDT – 19.428,- USDT

ZONE2:
28.632,- USDT – 32.192,- USDT

ZONE3:
37.387,- USDT – 39.175,- USDT

ZONE4:
45.714,- USDT – 47.590,- USDT

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Four hours chart
Daily chart
Weekly chart

Market depth

In-depth analysis of the bitcoin market!

Overview of the market depth!

The volume price trend in the relative strength index has moved from a short green phase back into the red phase with the first red point, indicating a trend reversal. Since Ai trend that still previously served as support, is now clearly a resistance again.

The volume of the bear market rally was, as we already predicted, rather on thin level.

The money flow shows that large investors are currently very cautious. The market is predominantly dominated by small investors. However, according to the ON-Chain data, institutional investors are currently on the sidelines.

Greed and Fear! One can see very well the individual phases of the respective cycle. The first phase is always extreme, the second phase normal and the third phase cools down and indicates a trend reversal. Currently, we have left the first phase of extreme fear and were partly in the lower range of greed. However, the fear is increasing again and thus the signs are increasing that the second phase of fear in the bear market is beginning. However, this should no longer be so strong.

The two lines, AI trend and MA 200 opened the bear market in January. The AI trend is flattening out and slowly going into a sideways line. Accordingly, the massive downward pressure should decrease.

The Google trend has grown since the crash and the demand in search engines are becoming more. At 76, we recently marked a high that we last saw in the May 2021 crash. After that, prices recovered and we were able to reach a new all-time high. Currently we have a score of 22, previously it was 27. The Google trend

Description regression technique!

Points

The dots correspond to the respective daily closing price in the price chart. If they change their color and size, they depend on projected values. The bigger they become, the stronger the corresponding value and the color changes.

Colors

The colors each correspond to the value indicated in the right color scale. The stronger the color becomes, the more it adds weight to the value. If the colors become lighter or weaker, this usually indicates a trend reversal.

Lines

The two different colored lines correspond to the moving averages. The 200 MA shows the average of the last 200 days. The AI trend line is based on the predictive value of the moving averages using artificial intelligence. If one line breaks the other in a period of more than 30 days, this may indicate a trend reversal. If the AI trend line is above the 200 MA, we are in an uptrend.

Google Trends

Cryptocurrencies are to some extent an impulsive and social asset, related to the sentiments of market participants. In order to get a better overview of this value, we project the current values of Google searches into the chart. Here, the time axis is coupled with the price trend and coincide. The larger and darker a point becomes, the larger the search queries are.

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Volume price trend in the relative strength index.
Volume
Money flow index
Greet and fear index.

Outlook

Outlook and seasonality!

How the market could develop!

With the help of machine learning we get a deeper insight into the market. The price prediction is based on a time series model supported by artificial intelligence. It gives an outlook on chart technical repetitions and known patterns, creating an estimate based on average values. The price zones are a part of the chart technical analysis in the upper part of the analysis. They show the strength on the bars in the chart as green support and red resistance.

Description regression technique!

Price zone

The price zones mark important green supports and red resistances on the chart. The dots represent the daily closing price of the asset. The chart shows the most important zones based on the regression distribution. The color markings of the points indicate the time units. The darker a point is, the older it is. On the x-axis is the course of the daily traded volume. In order for a zone to be located, the price must be at the same level as both a dark dot and a light dot. This means that this zone served as resistance and support in a longer period of time.

Time series forecasts

The price forecast is based on a time series model using artificial intelligence. It determines the average value as a blue line and the fluctuation range from a blue area. Therefore, it does not have to be accurate because the model is based on cyclical patterns.

Seasonality

Seasonality indicates the average market behavior. The period is based on Long-term, Annual and Weekly.

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Price zone
Time series forecasts
Seasonality

Erik Wimmer

Programmer, market analyst, on-chain analyst and quant strategies.


Passionate programmer and machine learning developer. Trader in forex since 2016, digital currencies since 2018. A programmer from Tyrol, Erik Wimmer is the deputy managing director and technical developer of Quantum Data Analytics GmbH.
Never go against the trend, because the trend is the future. And if you don't go with the future, it will catch up with you!

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Quantum Data Analytics GmbH. Every investment and trading move involves risk and advise you to seek other opinions as well. We do not recommend buying or selling decisions! You trade at your own risk!